William Paul Bell Queensland University Researcher

Why is mainstream economics not a social science but ideological mathematics?

Posts Tagged ‘risk

Hormonal Male Traders producing a Momentum Effect contrary to the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Choice

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Coates and Herbert (2008) study the role of the endocrine system in financial risk taking in a group of male traders in London. They find a positive relationship between a trader’s testosterone level and his daily Profit and Loss (P&L) and between his cortisol level and financial uncertainty, being measured by variance of economics returns and expected variance of the market. They note that rational choice is affected by the levels of the hormones. The more profits the trader made relative to his daily average the higher his testosterone became. Heightened testosterone increases a trader’s preference for risk. The process has a positive feedback, producing a financial variant of the “winner effect”. Additionally, short periods of high volatility increase a trader’s cortisol levels, which increase his motivation and his ability to focus, producing a euphoric feeling. However, prolonged period of elevated cortisol levels produce selective attention on mostly negative events and anxiety, reducing a trader’s preference for risk. Even if the number of traders is small, these hormonal effects could reinforce the momentum effect and cause markets to deviate from rational choice and the predictions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Read the rest of this entry »


Free market Fundamentalism and the US Health System

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President Obama’s health reforms run against a strong current of free market fundamentalism.  A fundamental belief that the free market always delivers the best results.  My article ‘The G8 protests and the logically inconsistent foundations of neoclassical economics’ discusses how there lacks a theoretical justification for the free market delivering the best results.  The empirical evidence shows that alternative systems of health provision provide better health outcomes for less cost than the US free market approach, see the CIA world factbook on ‘infant mortality rate’ and ‘life expectance at birth’.  These basic health indicators are picked deliberately as they encompass equity and disparities in health care provision.  Noting that the US health system might well provide good health care outcomes to the segments of the population who can manage to stay insured or are rich. Read the rest of this entry »